Willie R. Tubbs, FISM News
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Even if they are loath to say so in public, Democratic Party leaders are noodling through a wide series of potential contingencies should President Joe Biden choose to not seek a second term.
As first reported by The Hill, strategists and would-be presidential contenders are in the delicate predicament of not wanting to undercut a sitting president in their own party but also appreciating that some combination of Biden’s age, track record, and poor polling could make a 2024 Biden ticket untenable.
The Hill, in its far more exhaustive exploration of the topic, quotes Marianne Williamson, a progressive activist who gave voice to the top Democratic priority — win in 2024.
“The most important thing is for the Democrats to do well that day, of course,” Williamson said. “But we’re talking here about something much more important than a political football game; we’re talking about the fate of our democracy. No one person or their career or their political prospects is what matters now.”
In short, Democrats are far less concerned with who occupies the top of the ticket in 2024 than they are desirous that the party prevails over the Republican nominee, who Democrats no doubt fear will be former President Donald Trump.
But who to run?
The Hill explores many options, none of which are particularly appealing to centrists or conservatives. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and current Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were just a few of the names mentioned.
Absent from the report, though, was the name of California Gov. Gavin Newsome, a man who has made every effort to position himself as a national political figure and is already running attack ads against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who would be a Republican frontrunner should Trump not seek a third nomination.
At issue for Democrats is the reality that no potential Biden replacement is in any position to let his or her intentions be known. The most forceful statement anyone has made came from Ohio Sen. Tim Ryan, who The Hill quoted as calling for “generational change” in the Democratic Party.
But this statement is easily downplayed as a general call for more youth, or at least younger people, in leadership positions. This is a logical concern for a party home to a president, speaker of the house, and senate majority leader all north of 70. Sen. Chuck Schumer, at 71, is eight years younger than Biden and 11 years younger than Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
Much of what comes next, though, will be determined by what occurs in the midterm elections. Should Democrats perform better than expected, the quiet contingency planning might become a mere whisper. However, if Republicans have a strong showing, all bets could be off.
Monday, Politico reported that Democratic strategists worry that the midterm could prove costly.
“Look, man, I’ve been at this for 30 years, and it is always the period in late September and early October when an election starts to tilt and move,” Mark Longabaugh, a progressive ad maker, told Politico. “So, we’re at that moment, and I don’t think you can look at these numbers across the country and say anything but it looks like it’s moving in Republicans’ direction. I think it’s clear Republicans have seized the upper hand.”
Politico cites a combination of a new spike in gas costs, the ever-present issue of inflation, and a wonky stock market are all conspiring to harm Democrats’ chances.
Should Biden prove unable to turn the tide in those areas, chaos could ensue.